by Nicole Flatow
Eighty-five percent of "a select group of academics, journalists and lawyers who regularly follow and/or comment on the Supreme Court" believe the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold the Affordable Care Act, according to a new American Bar Association poll.

The widespread belief among legal experts that the health care reform law is constitutional is nothing new. As Reuters’ Joan Biskupic writes in a story tracing the history of the health care litigation, legal challenges to the law were initially regarded among many law professors as “implausible” and “frivolous.”
She explains:
As the suits proliferated, many professors, including conservatives, declared the challenges meritless. Charles Fried, a U.S. solicitor general under Reagan and now a Harvard law professor, told Greta Van Susteren of Fox News that he was so confident the individual mandate was valid that he would eat his hat - "bought in Australia ... made of kangaroo skin" - if the law was struck down.
Public buy-in of the concept that the individual coverage provision is unconstitutional increased when the challengers recruited seasoned Supreme Court litigator Paul Clement. Clement shifted the argument away from directly relevant Commerce Clause precedent and toward the slippery-slope message that there are no discernible limits on the government’s commerce power, and that the law is “unprecedented.”
The “It’s unprecedented!” rhetoric has been a rallying cry throughout history for those pushing back against progress, writes UCLA law professor Adam Winkler in a column for the San Jose Mercury News. But it hardly ever succeeds. He explains:


Following Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s bold move to file cloture petitions on 17 judicial nominees at once, Senate leaders
rejected by the lower courts -- and scheduled six hours of argument time over three days, the Court under Chief Justice John Roberts has put itself at the center of some of the most important political controversies of our day.
Employment Act. Very simply, that act made it unlawful to discriminate on the basis of age.